Over the past four seasons the Washington Capitals have developed into arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference, at least for the regular season. But Alex Ovechkin has yet to reach an Eastern Conference Championship Series with the Caps to prove his greatness to hockey. His rival his whole career, Sidney Crosby from the Penguins, has not only been there twice, but he has played for a Stanley Cup and took one home. The Capitals over the past few seasons have had a high scoring potent offense with as many as 318 goals last season. This proved to be dominant all season propelling them to number one in the conference last season only to be dropped by the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadians in the first round. As the Capitals began the first round with a win last night, the game showcased the different preparations the Capitals have made to take the giant step forward in the playoffs this season.
As with any sport, defense tends to win championships. The Capitals have given up an average of 2.89 goals a game in the playoffs the past three years, including 3 or more in their first game each year. Last night the Capitals only gave up one goal in three periods and almost a full overtime. They have made more of a commitment to defense this season, along with better goal tending. They sacrificed some goals and some wins, but implementing their new philosophies over the regular season was important for their playoff success.
Ovechkin's goal to tie the game in the third period was a bit of a garbage goal but a goal indeed. The capitals have an abundance of talent to put the puck in the net, but when the goals aren't coming they have to find a way to win. In previous years they haven't been able to do that. The goal last night saved the game and gave them the opportunity to win in overtime. In the past three postseasons the capitals have only won one game in which they have scored less than three goals. If they can continue to grit it out and win the close games and combine that with their scoring upside, they will be a tough opponent for anyone to eliminate from the playoffs.
The last major thing to pull from the game would be the goal by Alexander Semin. Last postseason he was nonexistent coming up with zero goals. With Semin scoring the overtime goal, the Caps are hopeful he's off to a fast start. Two seasons ago Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin all put up big points in the playoffs and made it to game seven of the second round. All three of the Cap's stars will have to repeat that performance if they hope to go any deeper than that.
A few years ago the Washington Capitals were young talent and over the past few years they have blossomed into the best team in the Eastern Conference with Alex Ovechkin leading the way. They sky has been the limit for this team and this is the year they will finally get there. This season they have done everything right to prepare for the playoffs, and while their game last night might not have been pretty, they now know how to win even when the shots aren't hitting the back of the net. The nations capital might just see their first champions since the Redskins way back in January 1992.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Waiting on Woods
The Masters at Augusta National is in full swing today. The top of the world golf rankings is more crowded than usual with six of the top seven golfers eligible to move into the number one ranking with a Master's victory this weekend. However, Tiger Woods is not number one currently, and he isn't two, three, four, five, or six. Tiger comes in as the seventh in the world rankings and the last eligible golfer to take over the number one ranking. We're so accustomed to his number one ranking that he held hostage for so long and watching him in his red polo chase down his prey on Sundays. He would keep us glued to the television hoping and willing him on further because every sports fan wants to be apart of a great moment that defines an athlete. Tiger just had the ability to create those moments year in and year out constantly redefining his career becoming more and more of a legend. Then it all came to screeching halt.
While his game isn't what it was two years ago, he is still Tiger Woods and probably the best golfer to ever play the game. He didn't leave his prime, and he isn't too old. Golf is as much a mental game as it is anything else. Tiger simply lost his mental game a year and a half ago and has struggled to bring back the focus. The determination, competitiveness, and talent is all still there. So he changed his swing, it isn't the first time he has done that and dealt with the consequences. He doesn't deserve to be number one right now, and he probably won't win the Master's this year. However, I do believe it is inevitable that he will win a green jacket again.
This Master's tournament may not mark the beginning of a new Tiger Woods, because he may not be ready for that. It does, however, present the opportunity to get back on track along with any other major tournament. Every time a fellow golfer takes their chance in the media to give a little shot at him they add fuel to the fire inside of one of the most competitive athletes in the world. When Ian Poulter said this week that "I don't think he'll finish in the top five", don't you think that just is just rebuilding Tiger's mental competitive edge? Wouldn't that be the best coming out party for Tiger's new image if on Sunday he chased down Poulter for the lead and showed him who's the world's greatest? Yeah I know it sounds great and it won't happen, not with this Tiger Woods anyway. But one day, maybe not today or this tournament, that Tiger Woods will be back. Tiger Woods is the core of the golf world, and we will all want to watch greatness. If we're lucky, it will come on Sunday.
While his game isn't what it was two years ago, he is still Tiger Woods and probably the best golfer to ever play the game. He didn't leave his prime, and he isn't too old. Golf is as much a mental game as it is anything else. Tiger simply lost his mental game a year and a half ago and has struggled to bring back the focus. The determination, competitiveness, and talent is all still there. So he changed his swing, it isn't the first time he has done that and dealt with the consequences. He doesn't deserve to be number one right now, and he probably won't win the Master's this year. However, I do believe it is inevitable that he will win a green jacket again.
This Master's tournament may not mark the beginning of a new Tiger Woods, because he may not be ready for that. It does, however, present the opportunity to get back on track along with any other major tournament. Every time a fellow golfer takes their chance in the media to give a little shot at him they add fuel to the fire inside of one of the most competitive athletes in the world. When Ian Poulter said this week that "I don't think he'll finish in the top five", don't you think that just is just rebuilding Tiger's mental competitive edge? Wouldn't that be the best coming out party for Tiger's new image if on Sunday he chased down Poulter for the lead and showed him who's the world's greatest? Yeah I know it sounds great and it won't happen, not with this Tiger Woods anyway. But one day, maybe not today or this tournament, that Tiger Woods will be back. Tiger Woods is the core of the golf world, and we will all want to watch greatness. If we're lucky, it will come on Sunday.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
One and Done: What Could Have Been
Well that was pretty painful to watch.
For two teams that earned their right to play in the National Title Game, they sure weren't into the idea of putting on a show. Butler shot less than twenty percent from the field, and the two teams combined for only eleven assists. That's probably because they both tossed the ball up at the rim every chance they got to pad their rebounding statistics for a combined ninety-one rebounds. Rather than reliving the high school basketball game that most of us witnessed last night, lets think about what could have been.
The best players in the nation come to college with one goal in mind, making it to the NBA. For the top prospects that usually means one and done. They play one year for a top basketball program to pay their dues to make it to the NBA. They aren't in college for the glory of winning the NCAA Title. Even if they were, the payday on the end of a draft selection is more money than most of the these kids could dream of having. But what if the NBA had the same rules as the NFL requiring a player to be out of high school for three years and most stayed for the full four years? Who would we have seen this weekend in the Final Four, and would we be treated as fans to a better championship than we saw last night?
The NCAA Tournament this year would have showcased Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Evan Turner, and Blake Griffin as seniors. There is a wealth of underclassman talent with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, DeMarcus Cousins, and John Wall at the top. UCLA(7) would easily be a top eight team with Love and Holiday in their senior and junior seasons respectively. Kentucky(4) would be a lock as a number one seed returning Wall, Cousins, Patterson, and Bledsoe from last year's team to pair with Brandon Knight and Josh Harrelson. Syracuse(3) would have Johnny Flynn and Wesley Johnson as seniors to create a dominating force in the Big East. Even the top seeded Buckeyes would add top talent with Evan Turner returning for a senior season. After seeing Blake Griffin's true potential in the NBA who knows what he could have done in four seasons in college with fellow guard Willie Warren by his side as a junior this season. The PAC-10 would have shown more life this season with Jerryd Bayless pairing with Derrick Williams for Arizona and O.J. Mayo teaming with DeMar DeRozan for USC. One scary thought would be if John Calipari didn't leave Memphis since Derrick Rose would still be around. If that was the case would John Wall and his other recruits have come to Memphis instead of Kentucky? Either way Calipari's team would be stacked from years of recruiting all hanging around to play for him.
So if we were so lucky to see the top NBA prospects stick around for a full education, who would be cutting down the nets? Kansas would have the best front court in the nation with Cole Aldrich returning to team with the Morris twins. Xavier Henry would provide immediate scoring help to the Jayhawk's front court. They would likely take over the top overall seed for the tournament. As the rich get richer, Ohio State would get even better with Evan Turner returning. He would provide the Buckeyes with a true scorer giving them a dominant front court between Turner and Sullinger. Kentucky, or wherever Calipari was recruiting to these past two years, would strike fear in any team they faced. Giving Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and Patterson a second year to play together and adding Brandon Knight and Josh Harrelson's recent emergence, the Wildcats would be poised for a late tournament run. Rounding out the top four could be UCLA, but I like Syracuse with their senior leaders Johnny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, and Rick Jackson. Flynn would immediately help the back court, which is in need of a guard who made smart decisions. Returning Flynn and Johnson would put them over the top as the team to beat in the Big East. Between the four teams, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Syracuse, I would put Kansas and Kentucky through as the most talented well-rounded teams.
So last night, we would have seen John Wall and Brandon Knight leading Kentucky with DeMarcus Cousins and Josh Harrelson battling the Morris twins and Cole Aldrich of Kansas in the paint. Now that would have given us some excitement to see that interior match-up. Kansas would likely have the edge there. The first half would have been a lot of pounding the ball inside to prove who is the dominant force. I see it as Kansas 36 to Kentucky 28 at halftime. The second half would have been about the guards and who was willing to put it all on the line to take the game over. John Wall, Brandon Knight, and Eric Bledsoe would take over the game because Kansas doesn't have the guard depth that Kentucky brings to the floor. Bledsoe and Knight shoot back to back three pointers to put Kansas away, while John Wall teaches us all how to "dougie" Peter Yang style on the bench. The winner is Kentucky 72 to Kansas 66. The depth Kentucky would have brought to this tournament is a direct reflection of Calipari's recruiting talent. The only thing that stops his team from being stacked to win it each and every year is the "one and done" philosophy that reins over college basketball. Lets hope the NBA joins the NFL's mindset soon, we deserve a better champion!
For two teams that earned their right to play in the National Title Game, they sure weren't into the idea of putting on a show. Butler shot less than twenty percent from the field, and the two teams combined for only eleven assists. That's probably because they both tossed the ball up at the rim every chance they got to pad their rebounding statistics for a combined ninety-one rebounds. Rather than reliving the high school basketball game that most of us witnessed last night, lets think about what could have been.
The best players in the nation come to college with one goal in mind, making it to the NBA. For the top prospects that usually means one and done. They play one year for a top basketball program to pay their dues to make it to the NBA. They aren't in college for the glory of winning the NCAA Title. Even if they were, the payday on the end of a draft selection is more money than most of the these kids could dream of having. But what if the NBA had the same rules as the NFL requiring a player to be out of high school for three years and most stayed for the full four years? Who would we have seen this weekend in the Final Four, and would we be treated as fans to a better championship than we saw last night?
The NCAA Tournament this year would have showcased Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Evan Turner, and Blake Griffin as seniors. There is a wealth of underclassman talent with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, DeMarcus Cousins, and John Wall at the top. UCLA(7) would easily be a top eight team with Love and Holiday in their senior and junior seasons respectively. Kentucky(4) would be a lock as a number one seed returning Wall, Cousins, Patterson, and Bledsoe from last year's team to pair with Brandon Knight and Josh Harrelson. Syracuse(3) would have Johnny Flynn and Wesley Johnson as seniors to create a dominating force in the Big East. Even the top seeded Buckeyes would add top talent with Evan Turner returning for a senior season. After seeing Blake Griffin's true potential in the NBA who knows what he could have done in four seasons in college with fellow guard Willie Warren by his side as a junior this season. The PAC-10 would have shown more life this season with Jerryd Bayless pairing with Derrick Williams for Arizona and O.J. Mayo teaming with DeMar DeRozan for USC. One scary thought would be if John Calipari didn't leave Memphis since Derrick Rose would still be around. If that was the case would John Wall and his other recruits have come to Memphis instead of Kentucky? Either way Calipari's team would be stacked from years of recruiting all hanging around to play for him.
So if we were so lucky to see the top NBA prospects stick around for a full education, who would be cutting down the nets? Kansas would have the best front court in the nation with Cole Aldrich returning to team with the Morris twins. Xavier Henry would provide immediate scoring help to the Jayhawk's front court. They would likely take over the top overall seed for the tournament. As the rich get richer, Ohio State would get even better with Evan Turner returning. He would provide the Buckeyes with a true scorer giving them a dominant front court between Turner and Sullinger. Kentucky, or wherever Calipari was recruiting to these past two years, would strike fear in any team they faced. Giving Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and Patterson a second year to play together and adding Brandon Knight and Josh Harrelson's recent emergence, the Wildcats would be poised for a late tournament run. Rounding out the top four could be UCLA, but I like Syracuse with their senior leaders Johnny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, and Rick Jackson. Flynn would immediately help the back court, which is in need of a guard who made smart decisions. Returning Flynn and Johnson would put them over the top as the team to beat in the Big East. Between the four teams, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Syracuse, I would put Kansas and Kentucky through as the most talented well-rounded teams.
So last night, we would have seen John Wall and Brandon Knight leading Kentucky with DeMarcus Cousins and Josh Harrelson battling the Morris twins and Cole Aldrich of Kansas in the paint. Now that would have given us some excitement to see that interior match-up. Kansas would likely have the edge there. The first half would have been a lot of pounding the ball inside to prove who is the dominant force. I see it as Kansas 36 to Kentucky 28 at halftime. The second half would have been about the guards and who was willing to put it all on the line to take the game over. John Wall, Brandon Knight, and Eric Bledsoe would take over the game because Kansas doesn't have the guard depth that Kentucky brings to the floor. Bledsoe and Knight shoot back to back three pointers to put Kansas away, while John Wall teaches us all how to "dougie" Peter Yang style on the bench. The winner is Kentucky 72 to Kansas 66. The depth Kentucky would have brought to this tournament is a direct reflection of Calipari's recruiting talent. The only thing that stops his team from being stacked to win it each and every year is the "one and done" philosophy that reins over college basketball. Lets hope the NBA joins the NFL's mindset soon, we deserve a better champion!
Monday, April 4, 2011
Two Packs, One Fight
The 2011 NCAA Basketball Champions will be crowned tonight in Houston, but the talent is watching from home. Number one seed Pitt hasn't played a game of basketball in two weeks, while the other one seeds, Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas, have been at home for a week. There hasn't been a two seed that has played in the last week. The final four came down to a three, four, eight, and eleven seed equaling the highest total seeds in the final four ever. Did the best four teams make it to the final four? No, but those teams earned every bit of what they have taken away from the top contenders.
VCU(11) was doubted heavily on Selection Sunday by all the experts. They went on to knock off three great teams in Georgetown(6), Purdue(3), and Kansas(1). Their only downfall was having to face a Butler(8) team that finds ways to win every game they play in. Butler has won three of their five games by three points or less, and they haven't won a game by over eight points. With the experience of playing one championship game the team has played well enough to stay in each game till the end when Matt Howard seems to always get a game winning basket. At this point, Butler has won 10 of its last 11 NCAA tournament games. Kentucky's(4) combination of experienced leadership and youthful talent helped them with the biggest win of the tournament over top seeded Ohio State. However, UConn was able to tighten up the defense and cause Kentucky to have a poor shooting night in the final four. Kemba Walker and the Huskies began their run in the Big East Tournament by winning five games in five days as a nine seed to become the Big East Champions. Most of us thought they wouldn't have the legs or mental energy to advance through the NCAA Tournament, but they have proved all the doubters wrong by becoming the hottest team in the country over the past few weeks.
So it seems fitting that the two hottest tournament teams are getting to face off for the NCAA National Championship. Before the conference tournaments UConn and Butler were listed as a five and eleven seed respectively, and both teams seemed off the national radar for a championship. By now Butler has proven its worth as a mid-major by making it to the title game two consecutive years, and UConn has shown that if you can survive the Big East regular season, the NCAA Tournament can be yours for the taking. On Selection Sunday in March some teams spend their time pounding their chests over their seeding, but to reach the big game in April the Huskies and Bulldogs have shown us the only thing that matters is the size of the fight in the dog.
I've got Kemba Walker and the Huskies.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
After the Madness Heading to Weekend 2
Brackets have been busted and we're only through the first weekend! The first one seed, Pittsburgh, has fallen to an eighth seeded Butler team that was in the National Championship last year. VCU, a team from the play-in round, has upset sixth seeded Georgetown and third seeded Purdue, both by 18 points. The Big East got eleven teams in and has already lost nine of them to the competition or themselves. Ohio State has shown their dominance in two easy match-ups, most recently George Mason. Syracuse, Texas, Kansas State, and Louisville were all popular picks that couldn't make it to a Sweet Sixteen game. Today there are still sixteen teams, but in four days the field will be thinned out to four teams heading to Houston, Texas with the chance to become the 2011 NCAA National Champions. Whose it going to be?
The West Region kicks off in Anaheim, CA tonight with UConn(3) and San Diego St.(2) in the early game and Duke(1) and Arizona(5) right after them. San Diego St. and Arizona will see some extra fans in the crowd against the two East Coast teams. Both teams may be in over their head against the ACC and Big East Champions. My original pick was San Diego over UConn, but it was mostly because I thought UConn would be worn out by now. Showing no real signs of fatigue, the Huskies defeated Bucknell and Cincinnati in the first two rounds and it should continue. Kemba Walker takes over games, and there's no reason that won't happen here. For Duke, I made it clear in the past that a healthy Kyrie Irving means I have the Blue Devils as the team to beat. He played well in his first game back, and the deeper they go the more time he should see on the court. Arizona made a statement beating Texas, that they could play with the top competition. Derrick Williams is an NBA prospect and top college player, but Duke has plenty of those too. While Williams should get his share against the Plumlee brothers, Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving will take over the game and secure the win for Duke. That leaves Duke and UConn meeting out West in the Elite Eight Saturday. The game would have the top guard play in the country with Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kemba Walker all on the court at the same time, creating a dream match-up before the Final Four. Both teams have great coaching and a conference championship this season. With Duke slowly getting back to the team they were early in the season, I am sending UConn home and Duke to Houston out of the West Region.
New Orleans plays host to tonight's other two games starting with Florida(2) and BYU(3), followed by Wisconsin(4) and Butler(8). Butler is the surprise here with two last second wins over Old Dominion and Pitt. How much of a surprise can it really be after being in the National Championship last year? They face a tough task against a defensive Wisconsin team that defeated a preseason favorite, Kansas State. I bet against Butler in their game against Old Dominion. I even went as far as to say if they some how won and faced Pitt that I didn't like their odds in that game. Now I am done and give in to Butler. In the past year they have succeeded further than anyone would have ever predicted. I am taking Butler over Wisconsin. Florida really impressed me in their opening game against an over matched fifteen seed. The game really showcased their versatility with Chandler Parson's ability to act like a 6'10 guard at times. Jimmer Fredette led BYU to an impressive win over Gonzaga to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Again when you expected them to fail after losing Brandon Davies for the season, Fredette keeps the team moving through. Florida's Boykin is a little dinged up, but he has guarded some of the top guards in the nation this season, so if his ankle can hold up I think he can hold Fredette to under 30 and from running away with the game. The Gators have waited a few years to return to the success they had in back to back national championships, so look for them to move on past Fredette's led Cougars. With such a weak region at this point, the Gators should be able to whether the competition to get themselves to Houston and into the final weekend.
Maybe it is appropriate for Kansas to be playing their next two rounds in the state of Texas, the same place as the final four. They won't have to travel far to Houston after only having to beat Richmond(12) and either VCU(11) or Florida St.(12). You couldn't ask for an easier path through the second weekend. Will they take advantage of it? Each team poses an interesting threat to the Jayhawks. Richmond can hold their own shooting lights out from the 3-point line. Florida St. may be the best defensive team in the tournament and locked down Notre Dame already. VCU is riding the highest wave of momentum in the tournament outside of UConn. Despite who they face, Kansas is more talented than every one of these teams and should be a lock to win. David can always slay Goliath, but there is no logical reason to bet on any one of these teams making it past Kansas and out of the Southwest Region. If I had to pick one, I would pick VCU because they have been the most impressive team not named Ohio State in the tournament so far. But I wouldn't count on it.
Out in the East region UNC(2) will face Marquette(11) followed by the tournament favorite, Ohio State(1), against Kentucky(4). The talent is there with UNC, Kentucky, and Ohio State. All three start at least one freshman with NBA talent. Marquette looks to be the odd man out, and if they defeated UNC it would be a true upset. I like UNC in this game, as they have been the hottest ACC team since mid season by only losing to Duke twice. That means after Ohio State faces Kentucky, and if they win, they would face UNC. I still believe Ohio State has the toughest road to the championship and I don't like their odds for that reason. Kentucky and UNC have the talent, athleticism, but lack the experience of a tournament tested team. I will go out on a limb and stick with my bracket of Kentucky upsetting Ohio State and then losing their next round game from being exhausted emotionally. I like the Tar Heels to move on to face their biggest rival, the Duke Blue Devils.
The West Region kicks off in Anaheim, CA tonight with UConn(3) and San Diego St.(2) in the early game and Duke(1) and Arizona(5) right after them. San Diego St. and Arizona will see some extra fans in the crowd against the two East Coast teams. Both teams may be in over their head against the ACC and Big East Champions. My original pick was San Diego over UConn, but it was mostly because I thought UConn would be worn out by now. Showing no real signs of fatigue, the Huskies defeated Bucknell and Cincinnati in the first two rounds and it should continue. Kemba Walker takes over games, and there's no reason that won't happen here. For Duke, I made it clear in the past that a healthy Kyrie Irving means I have the Blue Devils as the team to beat. He played well in his first game back, and the deeper they go the more time he should see on the court. Arizona made a statement beating Texas, that they could play with the top competition. Derrick Williams is an NBA prospect and top college player, but Duke has plenty of those too. While Williams should get his share against the Plumlee brothers, Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving will take over the game and secure the win for Duke. That leaves Duke and UConn meeting out West in the Elite Eight Saturday. The game would have the top guard play in the country with Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kemba Walker all on the court at the same time, creating a dream match-up before the Final Four. Both teams have great coaching and a conference championship this season. With Duke slowly getting back to the team they were early in the season, I am sending UConn home and Duke to Houston out of the West Region.
New Orleans plays host to tonight's other two games starting with Florida(2) and BYU(3), followed by Wisconsin(4) and Butler(8). Butler is the surprise here with two last second wins over Old Dominion and Pitt. How much of a surprise can it really be after being in the National Championship last year? They face a tough task against a defensive Wisconsin team that defeated a preseason favorite, Kansas State. I bet against Butler in their game against Old Dominion. I even went as far as to say if they some how won and faced Pitt that I didn't like their odds in that game. Now I am done and give in to Butler. In the past year they have succeeded further than anyone would have ever predicted. I am taking Butler over Wisconsin. Florida really impressed me in their opening game against an over matched fifteen seed. The game really showcased their versatility with Chandler Parson's ability to act like a 6'10 guard at times. Jimmer Fredette led BYU to an impressive win over Gonzaga to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Again when you expected them to fail after losing Brandon Davies for the season, Fredette keeps the team moving through. Florida's Boykin is a little dinged up, but he has guarded some of the top guards in the nation this season, so if his ankle can hold up I think he can hold Fredette to under 30 and from running away with the game. The Gators have waited a few years to return to the success they had in back to back national championships, so look for them to move on past Fredette's led Cougars. With such a weak region at this point, the Gators should be able to whether the competition to get themselves to Houston and into the final weekend.
Maybe it is appropriate for Kansas to be playing their next two rounds in the state of Texas, the same place as the final four. They won't have to travel far to Houston after only having to beat Richmond(12) and either VCU(11) or Florida St.(12). You couldn't ask for an easier path through the second weekend. Will they take advantage of it? Each team poses an interesting threat to the Jayhawks. Richmond can hold their own shooting lights out from the 3-point line. Florida St. may be the best defensive team in the tournament and locked down Notre Dame already. VCU is riding the highest wave of momentum in the tournament outside of UConn. Despite who they face, Kansas is more talented than every one of these teams and should be a lock to win. David can always slay Goliath, but there is no logical reason to bet on any one of these teams making it past Kansas and out of the Southwest Region. If I had to pick one, I would pick VCU because they have been the most impressive team not named Ohio State in the tournament so far. But I wouldn't count on it.
Out in the East region UNC(2) will face Marquette(11) followed by the tournament favorite, Ohio State(1), against Kentucky(4). The talent is there with UNC, Kentucky, and Ohio State. All three start at least one freshman with NBA talent. Marquette looks to be the odd man out, and if they defeated UNC it would be a true upset. I like UNC in this game, as they have been the hottest ACC team since mid season by only losing to Duke twice. That means after Ohio State faces Kentucky, and if they win, they would face UNC. I still believe Ohio State has the toughest road to the championship and I don't like their odds for that reason. Kentucky and UNC have the talent, athleticism, but lack the experience of a tournament tested team. I will go out on a limb and stick with my bracket of Kentucky upsetting Ohio State and then losing their next round game from being exhausted emotionally. I like the Tar Heels to move on to face their biggest rival, the Duke Blue Devils.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Championship Makes it Best of Three
On Monday I began to get into my bracket and immediately tried to pencil teams through to the final four that I thought were great teams. I ran into the problem of their being so much parity between the top twenty teams this year. There weren't any amazing teams, but a few great ones at the top, being Kansas and Ohio State. You look past them you'll find Pitt, Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, and San Diego State. The problem is that isn't the end of the list. Cases can be made for Purdue, Syracuse, UNC, UConn, Florida, and Kentucky. There actually was one team that I thought stood out above the rest, but they only played eight games of the season. That team is Duke with Kyrie Irving. There are sixty seven teams in the tournament that are happy they don't have to face that team, or will they? Reports suggest that Irving could come back to play as early as the first round for Duke, but he will be in a limited role off the bench. If Duke could get back to how they played with Irving the first time, I think the tournament is theirs for the taking. I don't see that being the case, so with that being said lets dive into my Final Four: Syracuse, Texas, Kansas, and Florida.
Syracuse started their season out at 18-0 being the last of the Big East teams to take its first loss. Jim Boeheim's squad is led by senior Rick Jackson inside crashing the boards and junior Scoop Jardine running the team from the point guard position. The Orange run Boeheim's 2-3 zone on defense that is tough to adjust to if you haven't played against it before, which fits perfectly for a tournament with less time for preparation. They rely on Jackson to block shots as they lead the league in that category, but scoring is spread among four players in double digits. The seven foot freshman, Fab Melo, could show up at anytime and exists as the real wild card on this team. He seems to be a project, but has a lot of potential due to his size and could provide some key rebounds down the stretch. After a hot start Syracuse went cold, but they got their groove back by the end of the season playing their best games yet.
Once Texas made their case to be in the top ten they never left it. Of their seven losses, only one was by more than eight points. They have young stars in Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson, who are among three players grabbing more than seven rebounds a game. The Longhorns play defense well in every position and are rarely mismatched. Matching them athlete for athlete is rare, giving them a leg up in transition. Texas has beaten Kansas and UNC and proven they are championship worthy, but with a rocky end to the season, they need to a solid early win to gain confidence.
With only two losses to date, Kansas rolls into the tournament hot off a Big 12 Championship win over rival and fellow Final Four contestant, Texas. They rank fifth in points per game and first in field goal percentage nationally. The team is near impossible to beat when the Morris twins are on their game in the paint. There is both balance and depth to Kansas, but if they lose either Morris to foul trouble, then they may be in trouble themselves. Kansas has no real blemishes on their record proving they are consistent and confident as the last one seed in the bracket.
Florida is a bit of a wild card to make it this far, since they probably were seeded too high and received a weak region. In their biggest game early in the season they faced Jared Sullinger and the Buckeyes but lost convincingly. They did manage to match the Buckeyes shooting and out rebound them but turned the ball over way too much. The Gators put together a solid SEC regular season resume, splitting games with Kentucky, before losing to the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament championship game. Chandler Parson's was the SEC Player of the Year and the Gator's all around play maker. Florida does have two questionable losses against UCF and Jacksonville State that prompt you to wonder if they have what it takes at this level.
The Big East got eleven teams into the tournament despite beating each other up all season long, but they don't have one team in my championship. The Big 12 is ruling this year's big game in Houston where I have Kansas meeting Texas in their home state. Kansas just had too much talent for Florida, and I think Texas will have enough time to prepare for Syracuse's zone defense going into the third weekend. Texas will also essentially have a home game against Syracuse in the final four. The game will act as the best of three match-up between Texas and Kansas as they split the first two. Texas will definitely be out for vengeance after losing the conference championship game just before the tournament kicked off. I think that game was a sign of how the Jayhawks will play Texas this time around, and I like the Rock Chalk Jayhawks to pull through for a national title. Can the Morris twins share the MVP?
Championship Game Pick: Kansas over Texas 78-72
Syracuse started their season out at 18-0 being the last of the Big East teams to take its first loss. Jim Boeheim's squad is led by senior Rick Jackson inside crashing the boards and junior Scoop Jardine running the team from the point guard position. The Orange run Boeheim's 2-3 zone on defense that is tough to adjust to if you haven't played against it before, which fits perfectly for a tournament with less time for preparation. They rely on Jackson to block shots as they lead the league in that category, but scoring is spread among four players in double digits. The seven foot freshman, Fab Melo, could show up at anytime and exists as the real wild card on this team. He seems to be a project, but has a lot of potential due to his size and could provide some key rebounds down the stretch. After a hot start Syracuse went cold, but they got their groove back by the end of the season playing their best games yet.
Once Texas made their case to be in the top ten they never left it. Of their seven losses, only one was by more than eight points. They have young stars in Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson, who are among three players grabbing more than seven rebounds a game. The Longhorns play defense well in every position and are rarely mismatched. Matching them athlete for athlete is rare, giving them a leg up in transition. Texas has beaten Kansas and UNC and proven they are championship worthy, but with a rocky end to the season, they need to a solid early win to gain confidence.
With only two losses to date, Kansas rolls into the tournament hot off a Big 12 Championship win over rival and fellow Final Four contestant, Texas. They rank fifth in points per game and first in field goal percentage nationally. The team is near impossible to beat when the Morris twins are on their game in the paint. There is both balance and depth to Kansas, but if they lose either Morris to foul trouble, then they may be in trouble themselves. Kansas has no real blemishes on their record proving they are consistent and confident as the last one seed in the bracket.
Florida is a bit of a wild card to make it this far, since they probably were seeded too high and received a weak region. In their biggest game early in the season they faced Jared Sullinger and the Buckeyes but lost convincingly. They did manage to match the Buckeyes shooting and out rebound them but turned the ball over way too much. The Gators put together a solid SEC regular season resume, splitting games with Kentucky, before losing to the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament championship game. Chandler Parson's was the SEC Player of the Year and the Gator's all around play maker. Florida does have two questionable losses against UCF and Jacksonville State that prompt you to wonder if they have what it takes at this level.
The Big East got eleven teams into the tournament despite beating each other up all season long, but they don't have one team in my championship. The Big 12 is ruling this year's big game in Houston where I have Kansas meeting Texas in their home state. Kansas just had too much talent for Florida, and I think Texas will have enough time to prepare for Syracuse's zone defense going into the third weekend. Texas will also essentially have a home game against Syracuse in the final four. The game will act as the best of three match-up between Texas and Kansas as they split the first two. Texas will definitely be out for vengeance after losing the conference championship game just before the tournament kicked off. I think that game was a sign of how the Jayhawks will play Texas this time around, and I like the Rock Chalk Jayhawks to pull through for a national title. Can the Morris twins share the MVP?
Championship Game Pick: Kansas over Texas 78-72
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| March Madness Championship Prediction |
The Southeast is Anyone's Game
Of all four regions the Southeast has to be the weakest at the top. None of the top four seeds won their conference championship, and each team may be over-seeded. Pitt held out as the one seed despite an early exit in the Big East Tournament, while Florida was expected to be lower than a two seed. Even BYU, who got a three seed, lost a star player towards the end of the season and isn't the same team that deserved their three seed. Rounding out the top four is Wisconsin who just lost a game in the 30's to Penn State. This is the region if a lesser team is going to rise to the top.
Two teams with plenty of experience drew each other in the first round in Old Dominion(9) and Butler(8). Butler lost in the title game last season and returned the majority of its players, but their star Gordon Hayward moved on to the NBA after one season. Old Dominion is one of the strongest defensive teams in the nation and the top rebounding team in the nation. Their only true weakness is at the 3-point line, where they don't shoot it or defend it particularly well. With that being said, I like Old Dominion to pull the minor upset over Butler with their ability to lock down the scorers of Butler and crash the boards hard.
One of the most common upset picks this season is picking Belmont(13) to advance past their first round match-up with Wisconsin(4). Belmont has some statistics that prove they are very capable "giant killers", and Wisconsin had a horrible showing in the Big Ten Tournament. However, Belmont probably didn't get the draw most people expected them to in Wisconsin, and I think they will be over-matched by their opponent. Wisconsin is a strong defensive team that doesn't turn the ball over and has the presence in the paint with Jon Leuer. Stay away from the trendy pick!
Behind the experience and talent that Michigan State(10) has on their team, I have them topping UCLA(7) in the first round as a classic 10-7 upset. The Spartans have one of the best coaches in college basketball and given time to prepare, Tom Izzo will have his team ready for this first game.
First Round Picks: Pittsburgh, ODU, Kansas State, Wisconsin, St. Johns, BYU, Michigan State, Florida
At this point were down to the best eight teams in the region and for this region anyone of them could pull the upsets. Pittsburgh and Old Dominion will be an intriguing game of defensive teams. ODU should take over the paint on Pitt, while the Panthers shoot from the 3-point line, which they are only second to Notre Dame at in the Big East. I read a synopsis of Pitt going into the tournament that said, Pitt will lose when Robinson is a non factor. Robinson is 6'5 but plays bigger than he is, so I think ODU could take him out of the game with their physical inside ability. I will go out on a limb and take ODU to win the game, but if some how Butler advances to this point I wouldn't pick the same against Pitt.
In the other match-ups, I like Kansas State to live up to their potential and take Wisconsin behind a strong effort from Jacob Pullen. Florida should continue their successful season holding off Michigan State. As BYU faces off with St. John's, two big time scorers will be on the floor as Jimmer Fredette goes head to head with Dwight Hardy. I can't pick against Jimmer this early with all the success he has had and his ability to take over a game, so I will put BYU through to face Florida.
Second Round Picks: ODU, Kansas State, BYU, Florida
Kansas State will throw an up tempo offense at ODU that won't let them set their defense fully. ODU will have trouble matching up with Jacob Pullen while he leads the Wildcats to victory. Kansas State was a top five team to start the season, and after falling off the wagon, they are again a team no one wants to face. In the other Sweet Sixteen game Florida meets BYU. If the Cougars still had Brandon Davies, who was suspended near the end of the season, I would have them moving on, but they are not able to fill the void he left. The Gators are heading to the Elite Eight.
Sweet Sixteen Picks: Kansas State, Florida
My Elite Eight game is between Kansas State and Florida, but I really do believe this region is wide open and you could see anyone here from BYU, Pitt, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and St. Johns. The Gators and Wildcats faced off once before during the season where Florida won and held Kansas State to 44 points beginning their downfall. Kansas State is prone to losing focus and I think Florida could repeat this victory if they can manage Jacob Pullen and Chandler Parson's can live up to his SEC player of the year award.
Elite Eight Pick: Florida
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| March Madness Southeast Bracket Predictions |
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