The Southeast is Anyone's Game

Of all four regions the Southeast has to be the weakest at the top.  None of the top four seeds won their conference championship, and each team may be over-seeded.  Pitt held out as the one seed despite an early exit in the Big East Tournament, while Florida was expected to be lower than a two seed. Even BYU, who got a three seed, lost a star player towards the end of the season and isn't the same team that deserved their three seed.  Rounding out the top four is Wisconsin who just lost a game in the 30's to Penn State.  This is the  region if a lesser team is going to rise to the top.

Two teams with plenty of experience drew each other in the first round in Old Dominion(9) and Butler(8).  Butler lost in the title game last season and returned the majority of its players, but their star Gordon Hayward moved on to the NBA after one season.  Old Dominion is one of the strongest defensive teams in the nation and the top rebounding team in the nation.  Their only true weakness is at the 3-point line, where they don't shoot it or defend it particularly well.  With that being said, I like Old Dominion to pull the minor upset over Butler with their ability to lock down the scorers of Butler and crash the boards hard.

One of the most common upset picks this season is picking Belmont(13) to advance past their first round match-up with Wisconsin(4).  Belmont has some statistics that prove they are very capable "giant killers", and Wisconsin had a horrible showing in the Big Ten Tournament.  However, Belmont probably didn't get the draw most people expected them to in Wisconsin, and I think they will be over-matched by their opponent.  Wisconsin is a strong defensive team that doesn't turn the ball over and has the presence in the paint with Jon Leuer.  Stay away from the trendy pick!

Behind the experience and talent that Michigan State(10) has on their team, I have them topping UCLA(7) in the first round as a classic 10-7 upset.  The Spartans have one of the best coaches in college basketball and given time to prepare, Tom Izzo will have his team ready for this first game.

First Round Picks: Pittsburgh, ODU, Kansas State, Wisconsin, St. Johns, BYU, Michigan State, Florida

At this point were down to the best eight teams in the region and for this region anyone of them could pull the upsets.  Pittsburgh and Old Dominion will be an intriguing game of defensive teams.  ODU should take over the paint on Pitt, while the Panthers shoot from the 3-point line, which they are only second to Notre Dame at in the Big East.  I read a synopsis of Pitt going into the tournament that said, Pitt will lose when Robinson is a non factor.  Robinson is 6'5 but plays bigger than he is, so I think ODU could take him out of the game with their physical inside ability.  I will go out on a limb and take ODU to win the game, but if some how Butler advances to this point I wouldn't pick the same against Pitt.

In the other match-ups, I like Kansas State to live up to their potential and take Wisconsin behind a strong effort from Jacob Pullen.  Florida should continue their successful season holding off Michigan State.  As BYU faces off with St. John's, two big time scorers will be on the floor as Jimmer Fredette goes head to head with Dwight Hardy.  I can't pick against Jimmer this early with all the success he has had and his ability to take over a game, so I will put BYU through to face Florida.  

Second Round Picks: ODU, Kansas State, BYU, Florida

Kansas State will throw an up tempo offense at ODU that won't let them set their defense fully.  ODU will have trouble matching up with Jacob Pullen while he leads the Wildcats to victory.  Kansas State was a top five team to start the season, and after falling off the wagon, they are again a team no one wants to face.  In the other Sweet Sixteen game Florida meets BYU.  If the Cougars still had Brandon Davies, who was suspended near the end of the season, I would have them moving on, but they are not able to fill the void he left.  The Gators are heading to the Elite Eight.

Sweet Sixteen Picks: Kansas State, Florida

My Elite Eight game is between Kansas State and Florida, but I really do believe this region is wide open and you could see anyone here from BYU, Pitt, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and St. Johns.  The Gators and Wildcats faced off once before during the season where Florida won and held Kansas State to 44 points beginning their downfall.  Kansas State is prone to losing focus and I think Florida could repeat this victory if they can manage Jacob Pullen and Chandler Parson's can live up to his SEC player of the year award.

Elite Eight Pick: Florida

March Madness Southeast Bracket Predictions