Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Championship Makes it Best of Three

On Monday I began to get into my bracket and immediately tried to pencil teams through to the final four that I thought were great teams.  I ran into the problem of their being so much parity between the top twenty teams this year.  There weren't any amazing teams, but a few great ones at the top, being Kansas and Ohio State. You look past them you'll find Pitt, Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, and San Diego State.  The problem is that isn't the end of the list.  Cases can be made for Purdue, Syracuse, UNC, UConn, Florida, and Kentucky.  There actually was one team that I thought stood out above the rest, but they only played eight games of the season.  That team is Duke with Kyrie Irving.  There are sixty seven teams in the tournament that are happy they don't have to face that team, or will they?  Reports suggest that Irving could come back to play as early as the first round for Duke, but he will be in a limited role off the bench.  If Duke could get back to how they played with Irving the first time, I think the tournament is theirs for the taking.  I don't see that being the case, so with that being said lets dive into my Final Four: Syracuse, Texas, Kansas, and Florida.

Syracuse started their season out at 18-0 being the last of the Big East teams to take its first loss.  Jim Boeheim's squad is led by senior Rick Jackson inside crashing the boards and junior Scoop Jardine running the team from the point guard position.  The Orange run Boeheim's 2-3 zone on defense that is tough to adjust to if you haven't played against it before, which fits perfectly for a tournament with less time for preparation.  They rely on Jackson to block shots as they lead the league in that category, but scoring is spread among four players in double digits.  The seven foot freshman, Fab Melo, could show up at anytime and exists as the real wild card on this team.  He seems to be a project, but has a lot of potential due to his size and could provide some key rebounds down the stretch.  After a hot start Syracuse went cold, but they got their groove back by the end of the season playing their best games yet.

Once Texas made their case to be in the top ten they never left it.  Of their seven losses, only one was by more than eight points.  They have young stars in Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson, who are among three players grabbing more than seven rebounds a game.  The Longhorns play defense well in every position and are rarely mismatched.  Matching them athlete for athlete is rare, giving them a leg up in transition.  Texas has beaten Kansas and UNC and proven they are championship worthy, but with a rocky end to the season, they need to a solid early win to gain confidence.

With only two losses to date, Kansas rolls into the tournament hot off a Big 12 Championship win over rival and fellow Final Four contestant, Texas.  They rank fifth in points per game and first in field goal percentage nationally.  The team is near impossible to beat when the Morris twins are on their game in the paint.  There is both balance and depth to Kansas, but if they lose either Morris to foul trouble, then they may be in trouble themselves.  Kansas has no real blemishes on their record proving they are consistent and confident as the last one seed in the bracket.

Florida is a bit of a wild card to make it this far, since they probably were seeded too high and received a weak region.  In their biggest game early in the season they faced Jared Sullinger and the Buckeyes but lost convincingly.  They did manage to match the Buckeyes shooting and out rebound them but turned the ball over way too much.  The Gators put together a solid SEC regular season resume, splitting games with Kentucky, before losing to the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament championship game.  Chandler Parson's was the SEC Player of the Year and the Gator's all around play maker.  Florida does have two questionable losses against UCF and Jacksonville State that prompt you to wonder if they have what it takes at this level.

The Big East got eleven teams into the tournament despite beating each other up all season long, but they don't have one team in my championship.  The Big 12 is ruling this year's big game in Houston where I have Kansas meeting Texas in their home state.  Kansas just had too much talent for Florida, and I think Texas will have enough time to prepare for Syracuse's zone defense going into the third weekend.  Texas will also essentially have a home game against Syracuse in the final four.  The game will act as the best of three match-up between Texas and Kansas as they split the first two.  Texas will definitely be out for vengeance after losing the conference championship game just before the tournament kicked off.  I think that game was a sign of how the Jayhawks will play Texas this time around, and I like the Rock Chalk Jayhawks to pull through for a national title.  Can the Morris twins share the MVP?

Championship Game Pick:  Kansas over Texas  78-72


March Madness Championship Prediction

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