The West region escaped the initial play-in games, so they are all on the same playing field. For the first round in the West I like the Michigan(8) and Tenneessee(9) match-up. Michigan is one of the youngest teams in the nation and did well in a strong Big Ten conference. Tennessee comes in as a highly talented team that doesn't always show up. With their coach, Bruce Pearl, forced to sit out a few games, the Volunteers struggled down the stretch. Tennessee could easily go on a run if they could become a disciplined team, but I like Michigan's talent and youth, as well as, a 1-3-1 defense they play that's tough for teams that aren't use to it.
My upset for the round is Penn State(10) over Temple(7). The Nittany Lions have a star player in Taylor Battle, who can take over a game and got them to the Big Ten championship. The team has senior leadership in Battle, Jackson, Brooks, and Jones that can help them get through the first round in their first tournament experience together. Temple does have a quality program that plays like a team, but I think following the momentum Penn State is riding from the Big Ten tournament, they will pull off a first round win.
First Round Picks: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Cincinnati, UConn, Penn State, San Diego State
Assuming Michigan beats Tennessee, I don't think Michigan has a chance to stop Duke in the second round. Tennessee's talent would pose more of a threat if they were to make it. Texas will face Arizona and will need to shut down Arizona's big man Derrick Williams, which is no easy task. The Longhorn's size should allow them to minimize the damages caused by Williams and will help them hang on for a win. With eleven Big East teams in the tournament, two are bound to play each other eventually and UConn should see Cincinnati in the second round. Cincinnati should keep the game close with good defense, but UConn has star power with Kemba Walker and won't lose to a lesser team. San Diego State rounds out the second round with an easy win over an over matched Penn State team. They both have veteran leadership, but San Diego State will out rebound Penn State and has a lot more talent.
Second Round Picks: Duke, Texas, UConn, San Diego State
Going into the second weekend of the tournament, I see Texas and Duke facing off in the Sweet Sixteen. As one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, Texas should pose problems for Duke. If they can get out to the perimeter and defend the three, I think Texas can take down a one seed. Again, only a few weeks ago Texas was the number one team in the nation and the team to beat, but they had a few losses at the end of the season. Their ranking doesn't show their true potential. Between UConn and San Diego State, I think the streak is broken. UConn had a great run, but how long can Kemba Walker knock down game winning shots? San Diego State may be the top seed, but in most people's mind this would be an upset. San Diego State out rebounds UConn and D.J. Gay slows down Kemba Walker as the Aztecs roll into the Elite Eight.
Sweet Sixteen Picks: Texas, San Diego State
Texas and San Diego State have been ranked in the top ten since mid season, and the match-up is David vs. Goliath in name only. The Longhorns can match the Aztecs size and take the boards the way that UConn wasn't able to achieve. Both teams excel with athleticism in transition, but Texas will be too much and overwhelm the Aztecs with their talent and defense. It was a good run for San Diego State with no tournament experience.
Elite Eight Pick: Texas
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